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Globe Scan 
EditorApril 15, 20187 Mins read
GLOBE SCAN : Chinas Belt Road – Great opportunity for India
EditorApril 15, 20187 Mins read
by KARAN KHARB
EVEN as the military stand-off between India and China at Doklam was amicably resolved on Indias terms last year, much of the media and many strategists in India have continued to express serious apprehensions about Chinas growing hegemonic ambitions in the region. The recent news of the Communist Party of China (CPC) endorsing Xi Jinpings term as President for Life has given a fillip to these apprehensions in the politico-diplomatic circles throughout the world, but more so in India. Ever since Xi came to power in 2013, he has embarked upon revamping the government machinery, including purging the military and the Party of corrupt leaders. His vision to expand Chinas influence across continents and oceans became clear when he propounded the idea of One Belt One Road. The big question, however, is: How justified are Indias apprehensions!
The concept of One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR), which is now commonly called Belt-Road Initiative (BRI), is undoubtedly a masterstroke in the geo-strategic matrices of todays world that could significantly alter the equations among the regional and global powers
The concept of One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR), which is now commonly called Belt-Road Initiative (BRI), is undoubtedly a masterstroke in the geo-strategic matrices of todays world that could significantly alter the equations among the regional and global powers. At a time when Chinas economy is on a decline from its high growth path, this masterstroke will expand Chinas strategic and economic reach across the world. The concept seeks to connect China seamlessly with Central Asia, Europe, West Asia, Eastern Africa and the littoral States of the Indo-Pacific. The term One Belt and One Road, respectively, signify revival of the Silk Road Economic Belt, a network of ancient trade routes that connected the East with the West linking the underdeveloped hinterland of China with Eurasia and Europe; and Maritime Silk Road, that will connect Chinas southern provinces to the South East Asian markets through railways and sea lanes across Indian Ocean and West Pacific.
THE mapping of the BRI network, i.e. highways, ports and rail lines, will generate enormous commercial opportunities across 65 countries, that is, 60 per cent of the global populace controlling a third of the total economic output of the world. It will boost Chinas maritime activity across the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, connecting Chinas coastline with Persian Gulf and Africas East coast besides SE Asia and South Asia.
Even as most countries in Indias neighbourhood are excited about the BRI project, India has been wary about Chinas grand strategy to encircle India by casting a String of Pearls around it in the form of development packages for the economically weaker countries in the region. Indias concerns, no doubt, have reasonable grounds that make Chinas intentions suspect. Firstly, the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is part of the BRI project, passes through the Indian territory illegally occupied by Pakistan, and with the Gwadar port under its control it gives China easy access to the Arabian Sea. Secondly, Chinas quest to dominate the Indian Ocean by luring the smaller countries in the region through its policy of Charm Offensive that includes infrastructure development projects like ports, airports, rail-road network and oil-pipelines could well be Chinas way of developing her own military bases in the region to legitimise her presence in the Indian Ocean.
Indias concerns, no doubt, have reasonable grounds that make Chinas intentions suspect. Firstly, the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is part of the BRI project, passes through the Indian territory illegally occupied by Pakistan
Whereas Indias apprehensions about the BRI Project have not been hidden, there are countries in the affected zones of the grand Initiative, especially in the Eastern Europe, SE Asia and even in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), that have welcomed the idea. As many as 52 sovereign countries are today on board with China on BRI. Significantly, even Russia has exhorted India to join the project. This eloquent and mammoth support makes BRI a reality of the future, Indias reservations notwithstanding. The CPEC project, Indias most vexatious concern in this gamut, is nearing completion with the Gwadar Port already functional under the Chinese control. Several infrastructure development projects like ports, airports and rail-road networks have been either accomplished or are currently in progress in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives.
As a counter to BRI, India and Japan have jointly enunciated a plan called Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC). While the BRI idea encompasses both land and oceanic routes, AAGC is essentially a network of sea lanes connecting India with Africa and the countries of SE Asia and Oceania. While China is developing Pakistans Gwadar port, India is developing Irans Chabahar port that will give access to Afghanistan, Central Asian countries and several European countries aspiring to connect with the Gulf bypassing Pakistan. India has ignored Chinas warnings and steadfastly continued to support Vietnam in its oil exploration activities in the South China Sea. Likewise, it has been undertaking developmental projects in a few other ASEAN countries as well as SAARC members.
Last year, on the side-lines of the ASEAN summit in Manila, India, Japan, Australia and the US met to lend support to Shinzo Abes 2007 idea of ensuring a free, open, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Although, the QUAD, as the initiative is called today, is a non-formal association, it has found silent support among the ASEAN countries as a soft-counter force to check Chinas dominance in the region, especially in the aftermath of her audacious advances into the central South China Sea. Even more significantly, Indias partnership in this dialogue highlights how Indias Act East policy has fructified in enhancing her status in the Asian and trans-Asian geopolitics. The region that was Asia-Pacific is now being called Indo-Pacific by the western world, which also highlights Indias countervailing potential signalling that China is not the only power in the region.
In addition, India has also launched its soft-power initiatives to connect nations in the region. Project Mausam, a Ministry of Culture project, seeks to rejuvenate relations with countries of the Indian Ocean by enhancing cultural exchange. Besides developing Irans Chabahar port, India is also developing naval ports in countries of the IOR like Madagascar, Seychelles, and Mauritius.
LONG before Xi Jinpings idea of OBOR, India, Russia and Iran had conceptualised and initiated a similar projectthe International NorthSouth Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km long multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road route connecting India, Iran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe.
As many as 52 sovereign countries are today on board with China on BRI. Significantly, even Russia has exhorted India to join the project. This eloquent and mammoth support makes BRI a reality of the future, Indias reservations notwithstanding
The focus of the modern world is shifting from geo-politics to geo-economics today. Both China and India have emerged as giants in economic growth in the post-2008 economic crisis world. Indias apprehensions of Chinas hegemonic ambitions seem to be based more on apparitions of the forgettable past than on substance of concrete evidence. Sporadic cases of intrusion and tussle between the Indian and Chinese troops notwithstanding, not a bullet has been fired anywhere on the 4,056 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) since the Nathu La episode of 1967. The all-weather friendship between China and Pakistan might irk India, but they are both sovereign nations and perhaps pushed into this relationship by their shared animosity towards India. This can change. In 2016-17, Indias bilateral trade with China was $71.48 billion, recording a marginal decrease in Indias trade deficit. Besides the 12 investment agreements aggregating to $20 billion signed during President Xi Jinpings visit to India in September 2014, as many as 600 Chinese companies have offered to invest a total of about $85 billion in India in projects that will create an estimated 7,00,000 jobs in the country in next five years.
Lot of water has flown down the Brahmaputra in the post-1962 era. Crying need of the time is rapprochement between the two nations paving way for enhanced cooperation in commerce and other areas of mutual interest.
India and China being the key players on this hemisphere of the globe, their geo-strategic interests will continue to pass through conflicts from time to time. India therefore needs to build up her own power and clout to check China from overwhelming Indias influence in the region. Some projects like the CPEC may be disadvantageous to India, but there are also some very significant advantages for India if she opts to join the BRI. A paradigm shift in Indias strategic positioning is needed to see those advantages clearly. Firstly, of the 65 countries affected by BRI, 52, including Indias neighbours except Bhutan, are already on board with China. There is no way India can stop it. By staying out of the project, India is risking its own isolation, tempting her allies to flee. Secondly, there are grounds for India to work out a win-win situation by tweaking its countervailing potential to a partnership with China in the pursuit of mutual interests while guarding her own in the IOR and the Indo-Pacific. Thirdly, the key to BRIs success lies in factors like regional transport, energy security and blue economy.
Indias geography makes her position strategically most vital in the security of sea traffic in its East, South and West. By joining BRI, India will naturally enhance her own importance here. Fourthly, China has surplus capital and cheaper technology to accelerate development and, like other nations, India also needs funds and resources for its own development projects. Fifthly, BRI will throw open new trade connections for India with many countries. Sixthly, India is already a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). As a BRI partner, she will find it only easier to make forays into Central Asia besides acquiring an influential role within SCO too.
If India were a partner in the BRI, her potential as a power will not be easy for China to ignore; whereas by staying away from it, India would be surrendering her role as a countervailing power, not only at the BRI forum but also in the region and the world. Indias policy makers must remember that in the ancient times too, it was along the Silk Route along which Indias trade flourished and her philosophy and Buddhism spread across Asia and beyond. 
GLOBE SCAN / Geostrategy / China
VOL. 12 | ISSUE 1 | APRIL 2018
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While I agree with all the arguments put forth in favour of India joining the BRI,and thereby increasing its leverage in the region while being a part of this initiative.
The CPEC within the OBOR violates the key essential aspect of Sovereignty of Indian State by passing through POK and Aksai Chin Area now under Pakistan and China. Therefore if India joins it then it would entail ceding it’s Sovereignty forever on these Indian territory.The consequences of it within the country for the ruling political party in eyes of common man will be devastating.
If however India was to agree with China persistent proposal to join this CPEC or OBOR initiative then for the Indian ruling dispensation to survive the internal consequences it will have to show substantial amount of geostrategic benefits and gains in terms of resolution of disputed areas, China making its puppet Pak give up terrorism and China agreeing to India’s entry into UNSC and recognition of Arunachal Pradesh quid pro quo…