The US risks losing its global edge by outsourcing critical R&D, and while India debates quotas and plays politics with education, China is positioned well for the future
At Duke University we had published a study in 2005 on the engineering graduation rates of India, China and the US, which received extensive attention. We’ve spent the last 15 months researching this topic further and are releasing the latest data in a report in the National Academy of Sciences magazine – “Issues in Science and Technology”. The National Academy of Sciences is the most respected and influential academic institution in America. This new report presents lots of new information which has not been published before – even in India and China. It raises concerns that China is racing ahead of the US and India in its ability to perform basic research. The US risks losing its global edge by outsourcing critical R&D, and while India debates quotas and plays politics with education, China is
positioned well for the future.
Our earlier study corrected the myths about India and China graduating 12 times as many bachelors-level engineers as the US, and the US being in trouble because of this. We reported that the US actually graduates a comparable number of such engineers, and reported serious problems with the quality of Indian and Chinese graduates. We predicted shortages in India and unemployment in China.
It seems we were right. China’s National Reform Commission reported that the majority of its 2006 graduates will not find work, and there have been several reports about engineering shortages in India. The press has generally stopped using the incorrect numbers, but some still do. For example, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was quoted recently as saying, “Consider that in 2005, more than 600,000 engineers graduated from institutions of higher education in China, compared to 350,000 in India and only 70,000 in the United States. China’s population is more than three times that of the US, yet they graduate more than eight times the number of engineers.”
Our research had raised many questions. What was the trend? Did degrees really matter? Was it a deficiency or shortage of skilled Americans that was causing companies to go offshore? Where was this headed? What about Masters and PhD graduation rates? What are the American advantages? Our new report addresses these issues.BOX
Research highlightsThe US is fixing the wrong problems. Outsourcing will continue and gain momentum, but this is not what America has to worry the most about. It is the outsourcing of critical research and design that is likely to go next. The bottom line is that the US and India simply seem to be asleep at the wheel while China races ahead.
- Starting in 1999, China flooded the market with bachelor’s-level graduates to bring elite education to the masses and to drive down salaries and costs.* This created massive unemployment, and the vast majority of these graduates won’t find work. China has now slowed down.
- India has serious problems in quantity and quality, but private enterprise has been India’s salvation – private colleges and “finishing schools” make up for the deficiencies.
- Multinationals can hire from most colleges in India but they can’t hire from other than 10-15 schools in China.
- It is not the education of Indian and Chinese workers that is causing outsourcing or a deficiency in the American workforce – it’s all about cost savings. There is no shortage of engineers in the US. *Outsourcing will continue and build momentum and what will go next is research and design. The loss of R&D is what poses the real threat to US competitiveness.
- These new jobs will require more Masters and PhDs.
- China now graduates more Masters and PhDs in engineering than the US. Over a 10- year period, India and US graduation rates have shown relatively very small increases. *India’s engineering PhD numbers have remained flat – less than 1,000 per year, while China graduated 9,427 in 2005 and the US graduated 7,333. India does not even graduate enough to staff its growing universities. (Editor’s note: Keep this blue portion within box but also use as Blow up quote up within the copy)
(Second box)Conclusions
Conclusions
- Even if the US were to fix K-12 edu- cation, as Senator Reid and others are rightfully advocating, it would take 10-15 years before any benefits would accrue, and the US would have lost its competitive edge.
- Simply increasing graduation rates would cause them to suffer the same fate as Chinese graduates – unem- ployment and dropping salaries.
- The US can’t continue to depend on foreign students to fill graduate and post-graduate programmes – as the economies of India and China improve, they will start returning home.
- Even if the US
