Will the Reds gain if the Congress and Mamata Banerjee part ways?
Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and Sitaram Yechury are working overtime on mending relations with the Congress. CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat is uninterested, but is willing to give them a concession – they can continue trying to drive a wedge between the Congress and Trinamool Congress (TC) for the next 12 months.
These 12 months are crucial for both the Left and Mamata Banerjee’s TC. They are locked in a do or die battle, in a very real sense of the term, in Bengal. The Left, the erstwhile “revolutionaries”, perceives its only hope of survival in the state as lying in uncoupling the two Congresses – the more rightwing one led by Sonia Gandhi and that led by Mamata that is nowadays taking leftist stands on various issues.
No one can vouch for Mamata’s keeping the alliance with the Congress alive for another year, when she faces the hustings in April or May of 2011. The CPI(M) believes it lost so heavily in the general election because of the Congress-TC alliance in the state. So, the “revolutionaries” of Bengal have no qualms about pleading with the Congress not to take umbrage at their withdrawal of support and to shun Mamata.
As for the impetuous Mamata, she often does things that jeopardize her own interests. Her volte face on the Women’s Bill is a glaring example. She was one of the strongest votaries of the Bill for long. A day before it was placed in the Rajya Sabha last month, she sang “We Shall Overcome” in the Lok Sabha. The next day, she found many shortcomings in the Bill and asked her party members to absent themselves during voting in the Upper House.
But it seems her colleagues have impressed upon her the need to carry on with the alliance with the Congress. Sonia Gandhi is strongly in favour of keeping the alliance going, too, though almost all the top leaders of the Bengal Congress demur.
But, suppose the Congress and TC part company, how will it affect the poll results? Differing scenarios are possible, keeping in mind the vote percentage of the parties and the geographical imbalances evident in West Bengal in the 2009 parliamentary election. Presuming that, judging by the 2009 results, Mamata’s party has lost ground slightly among the urban voters (because of her impetuous politics) and gained in the rural and semi-urban regions (where more voters are coming out against the hegemony of the CPM), there are four possible scenarios.
Scenario I (Possibility: 80%)
TC and Congress fight poll jointly (with 2/3 majority)
Despite the CPI(M)’s effort to create a rift between the Congress and TC, both parties are likely to fight the Assembly election together. There will be little space for a joint manifesto as Mamata is opposed to many of the hardcore rightist policies of the government like large-scale disinvestment and the nuclear liability Bill. But the lack of affinity will affect the Congress more, its impact on the TC will be negligible.
The alliance is likely to get 200+ seats in the 294-member Assembly. The TC may get about 150-160 and the Congress about 40-50. However, if we take into account the gain the opposition has made after the 2009 polls (particularly the TC, which has added 6 per cent more votes in Assembly by-elections and municipal polls), it may go beyond 250.
The aftermath will be difficult as Mamata is positively allergic to many Congress leaders. But the government will last a full five years.
Scenario II (Possibility: 10%)
Mamata as CM with simple majority
If the alliance breaks, there are two possibilities. One, Mamata and her allies get a simple majority – say, about 150 seats. This happens if the TC retains its popularity level from the 2009 polls. Two, the TC alone may get much more than this and go up to around 200 if it significantly expands its base. This happens if Mamata makes gains in new areas (as in the second half of 2009), while not losing significantly from her 2009 position.
Then she will be CM for five years.
Scenario III (Possibility: 7.5%)
Mamata as CM without majority for TC
In case of a very sour break-up of the alliance, the TC may miss the magic mark by a few seats and then will have to depend on Congress support again post-election.
Mamata will be CM but it will be an unstable government and another election will ensue soon.
Scenario IV (Possibility: 2.5%)
Pranab Mukherjee heads a minority government
This happens if, in case of a sour break-up, the Congress does not back Mamata. The Left will be happy to extend support to a minority Congress government (with maybe 15 per cent of MLAs) led by a person like Pranab Mukherjee.
The survival of such a government will depend on the overall political environment in the country.
It is clear that if the Congress and TC split, there is no guarantee that the Left will gain significantly. There is only a 2.5 per cent chance of the Left gaining. Of course, this estimate is based on subjective factors like one’s interpretation of the political reality and judgement of the probable swing in voters’ mood.
