Indian billionaire Adani Group may find any further funding from investors harder following the US indictment as banks begin review and scrutiny of credit facilities offered to group that dominates the infrastructure sector – Some Adani stocks stabilize, have lost $28 billion in value – Arrest is debatable – guilt has to be established in India too – Trump may intervene Not likely to affect Indo_US-relations
India’s infrastructure giant turned billionaire Gautam Adani, once claimed to be Forbes richest Asian and later hit by the Hindenburg report for suspected shady offshore accounts, will now find it difficult to access funds from investors and equity players following a U.S. arrest warrant issued against him. Some banks are reportedly considering dis-continuing fresh credit tin the wake of an alleged $265 million bribery scheme. Some global banks are considering temporarily halting fresh credit to the Adani Group after the U.S. indictment but maintaining existing loans, informed sources said. 
Can he be arrested? Can he be extradited?
Legal pundits say that for that to happen Adanis guilt has to be proved by Indian regulators also, besides the arrest warrants have been issued by the outgoing administration and when Trump takes over as president on Jan 20, he is most likely to ask the DOJ to rescind it or hold it until Indian authorities to prove the guilt thus providing leverage and time to the Narendra Modi led BJP government to handle the crisis in India as opposition is likely to mount a huge charge and disrupt the proceedings of the parliament which meets for the winter session of parliament on November 25.
The big if? SEBI (Securities Exchange Board of India) in India has to probe if Adani hide anything from them in his disclosures before it, the enforcement agencies have to investigate if Adani did anything wrong or broke the law or compliance proceedings with Indian laws in procuring loans from US investors. So, its bracing up to a big legal battle in courts. But if Trump intervenes, the entire issue could end in a whimper and even if Adani is at fault he could go Scot free. At present Adanis’s whereabouts are unknown, but he is stated to be in India somewhere.
Opposition has been making charges that both the Adanis and Ambani groups have been given out of turn favours by the PM Modi administration as they hail from his home state of Gujarat disregarding other industrial groups in the country when it came to business contracts from the government.
The Adani group will need regular access to equity and debt markets given its large growth plans, but it might find fewer takers, US media reported quoting equity and debt maturities players saying , “We believe domestic, as well as some international banks and bond market investors, look at Adani entities as a group, and could set group limits on their exposure. “
However, S&P added that the rated entities have “no immediate and lumpy” debt maturities.
Some two of Adani’s global lenders claimed they received multiple calls within their respective banks to discuss exposure to the group and what the impact of the indictment would be on its financial position. Refinancing for the industrial conglomerate’s green energy business, the pivot of the bribery allegations, as its biggest near-term concern.
Bonds issued by the Adani Group dropped sharply for a second day on Friday and although the shares of some Adani firms clawed back some of Thursday’s losses, the overall market value of all ten stocks has dropped by $27.9 billion over two sessions.
Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS), which is at the centre of the U.S. allegations, has lost nearly $7 billion of its value. U.S. authorities have charged Adani and seven other people with agreeing to pay bribes to Indian government officials to obtain contracts that could yield $2 billion of profit over 20 years as well as to develop India’s largest solar power project.
Adani Group has said the accusations as well as those leveled by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in a parallel civil case are “baseless and denied” and that it will seek “all possible legal recourse”. Some analysts have said the fallout was unlikely to be limited to the Adani group of companies.
“India’s renewable energy sector, a critical pillar for global climate goals, may face reduced international investment as a result of this controversy,” said an Indian analyst on debt-equity and loans and financing. “Investors may demand greater transparency and due diligence, slowing down the pace of project financing.”
The Securities and Exchange Board of India, the country’s market regulator, is making preliminary checks to see if disclosures made by Adani entities were inadequate and if they breached local market regulations, per SEBI sources. SEBI did not respond to a request for comment, US media reported.
The regulator has completed a separate investigation into the group, but not yet issued orders, after Hindenburg Research in January 2023 alleged improper use of tax havens and stock manipulation, which the group has denied. Falls in Adani dollar bond prices on Friday included a 2.5c drop on the dollar for 2029 Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone bonds. At 87.8c, they are down more than 5c over the two sessions.
Longer-dated maturities have fallen around 5c in two days and trade just below 80c. Adani Transmission and Adani Electricity Mumbai bond prices had similar declines.
Investors are closely watching if the Adani deals could be scuttled after Kenya cancelled a procurement process worth nearly $2 billion that had been widely expected to award control of the country’s main airport to the group. It also scrapped a 30-year, $736-million public-private partnership deal that an Adani Group firm signed with the energy ministry last month for the construction of power transmission lines.
Adani Green also cancelled a scheduled $600 million U.S. bond sale.
U.S. prosecutors claim Adani, his nephew Sagar Adani and others allegedly bribed Indian government officials to wrest business advantages over competitors in the renewable energy projects in India that benefited Adani Green, and a company called Azure Power, which was listed on the New York Stock Exchange until late 2023.
They are also accused of making misleading statements to the public, including U.S. investors, despite being made aware of the U.S. investigation in 2023. Adani has not appeared in public or commented on social media since the indictment and his whereabouts remain unclear, source in the business circles said.
India’s regulatory authorities have not yet responded to demands by opposition parties led by the Congress for a probe into the indictment, which came not long after Adani raised $1.5 billion through two share sales by flagship firm Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS), and power distribution arm Adani Energy Solutions (ADAI.NS).
The US Justice Department has alleged Adani and other executives paid off Indian government officials to secure contracts.
Gautam Adani, the billionaire founder of one of India’s biggest business conglomerates, was charged by the Justice Department with orchestrating a massive bribery scheme to pay off Indian government officials to secure lucrative solar-energy supply contracts.
Prosecutors announced a 54-page indictment that alleges Adani, the chairperson of the Adani Group, personally met with Indian officials to advance the alleged illicit deal and secure contracts worth billions of dollars for a renewable-energy company owned by the conglomerate. Prosecutors also alleged that Gautam Adani, 62 years old, and two Adani Green Energy executives conspired to misrepresent the renewable-energy firm’s anti-bribery and corruption practices to U.S. investors and financial institutions to obtain financing, reports said.
Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, one of Asia’s richest men, may now be facing his biggest challenge ever with the indictment by U.S. prosecutors for alleged fraud and bribery. But it is unclear just how the case will affect his businesses and own future — as well as the Indian economy and government. Except that banks are following a cautious approach in lending further to the group. 
The litmus test for the Indian business tycoon and his multibillion-dollar empire sprawling over several continents with interests in energy and ports to media and agriculture, comes just after the 62-year-old founder and his business empire bounced back after losing more than $60 billion in market value in early 2023 following allegations of stock price manipulation and fraud by the short-selling firm Hindenburg Research. The securities chief in India Ms Madhavi Buch was also alleged to have taken a stake in one of Adanis offshore companies showing conflict of interests in launching any investigation into the group. She and her husband have denied they had any stake and government, and ruling party sources claimed the Hindenburg report was part of a larger conspiracy to derails Indias progress as an economic giant in the region by attacking one of its emerging industrial groups.
On the global scene.
Questions have also been raised about corporate governance and crony capitalism in India’s economy, which Indian PM Modi has vowed to abolish and make his country the world’s third largest economy to touch a $5 trillion status, intensifying scrutiny on the outsized influence of large, family-run conglomerates. Asia’s richest man is another Indian billionaire, Mukesh Ambani of Reliance Industries. The opposition parties led by Congress in the INDIA alliance of twenty-seven political parties has been alleging that the Modi government had been giving out of turn contracts to the Adani and Ambani group over other industrial groups as they hailed from his state of Gujarat.
Prosecutors allege that Adani duped investors in a massive solar project in India by concealing that it was being facilitated by bribes. Seven other executives connected to Adani’s sprawling business empire also face charges. The indictment outlines an alleged scheme to pay about $265 million in bribes to government officials in India, media reports said.
The Adani group denied the allegations against directors of Adani Green Energy, its renewable energy arm, as “baseless” and said they will be seeking legal recourse. Shares in Adani’s green energy venture, which is at the centre of the case, dropped 8% on Friday.
None of the people charged in the case have been arrested so far. It is not clear if the US economic offences wing has jurisdiction over industries or businesspeople in India alleged to have conducted dubious business transactions with loans obtained from foreign investors. It is not an offense conducted on US soil, but alleged crime conducted with money borrowed from US investors. There is a difference between the two.
“For Adani, this hits hard, no matter how you slice it. His public relations machine was in overdrive for nearly two years rehabilitating his image following the Hindenburg allegations. This indictment came like a bolt from the blue and instantly reversed all recent progress in salvaging his reputation and business empire,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre US.
Adani group’s footprint runs silent and runs deep across the Indian economy, business circles alleged saying He is the country’s largest operator of coal mines and infrastructure developer, operating several ports and airports, and employs tens of thousands of people. Despite his fossil fuel roots, Adani has ambitions to become the world’s largest player in renewable energy by 2030.
Analysts claim a key factor in his meteoric rise over the years has been his knack for aligning his group’s priorities with those of the Modi government, investing in key industries like renewable energy, defence, and agriculture. Before Modi, Adani was friendly with other parties in power.
The latest controversy is likely to put Modi’s Bhartiya Janata Party-led government, seen as close to Adani, in an awkward and embarrassing spot. Amit Malviya, the BJP’s IT head, said in a post on X that the U.S. charges are “allegations and the defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty,” which critics interpreted as a show of support for the Adani group.
The main opposition party has seized on the controversy, demanding Adani’s arrest and accusing Modi, who has at times campaigned using an Adani jet, of protecting him. Opposition lawmakers are likely to escalate pressure on Modi when the winter session of parliament begins next week, media reports emanating from India said. 
Adani is likely to also face scrutiny in Bangladesh, where a court on Tuesday ordered an inquiry into an energy project. His troubles might complicate India’s ties with other countries, such as Sri Lanka, where New Delhi is competing with rival Beijing for strategically important markets. 
There is no doubt this is “bad timing for New Delhi,” said Kugelman, as it comes at a moment “when it’s trying to capitalize on the business world’s desire to move production out of China and find alternate investment destinations.”
As for India-U.S. ties, some analysts believe President-elect Donald Trump may intervene. PM Modi and President elect Trump enjoy a close relationship and Trumps business grew in India during the premiership of Modi, particularly in the western state of Maharashtra in the city of Pune.
“India would like nothing more than for Trump to halt the investigation once he takes office. That is unlikely. Trump, however, could take a positive view of Adani, a fellow businessperson who has praised Trump effusively,” said Kugelman.
The Adani bribery scandal brings under closer scrutiny the risk involved in doing business in India, sources said adding however the impact on investors will be limited mainly to the Adani group. And no other groups in the country with overseas contracts, especially in the services sector. IT and Software giants such as Tata consultancy Services, Infosys, WIPRO, and HCL with major contracts in the US with several MNCs bringing billions of dollars in revenues to India in terms of foreign exchange which has now ballooned to close to $700 billion.
“There are no fears of a financial contagion — at this point, the effect is cantered on the group rather than the market. It could slow down the group’s expansion and growth as it will become more difficult for Adani to raise funds,” media in India quoted Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market analyst.
Still, for many in India, the news is not that startling. Investors already know “just how ingrained this (bribes and corruption) is in the fabric of the Indian economy — you can’t miss it,” Baliga said. “Initially, investors may stay away for a while – but at the end of the day, they will come back (to Adani). This is not some small or medium-sized group they can ignore.”
Adani’s US Indictment and Its Probable Impact on India-US Trade Relations
Just before beginning of the winter session of the parliament on November 25, Modi said that there should be “healthy debate” and accused some members of trying to control the parliament for their own political gain.
The new Adani alleged scandal has not only shaken his own business conglomerate out of the comfort zone, but also sent shock waves raising questions over the future of its bilateral relations with the United States. Many experts believe that the bribery allegations against Asia’s second richest man, Gautam Adani, will leave a significant impact on US-India ties unless the president-elect Donald Trump decides to halt the prosecution.
The US prosecutors charged Adani with fraud in a $250 million bribery scheme related to solar power contracts. Adani had committed to invest $10 billion in the US energy and infrastructure when Trump won the 2024 US elections.
However, a week later, the US court alleged that the Adani Group orchestrated a scheme to pay various Indian government officials to lie to investors and banks to raise billions of dollars and obstruct justice.
The Fate of India-US Relation
Talking to Bloomberg, Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research, said that the indictment is seen as politically driven in New Delhi. He also predicted that it would have a bearing on US-India collaboration and mutual trust unless the incoming Trump administration drops the prosecution.
“Much will depend on how the next US administration seeks to chart the relationship with India,” Chellaney said.
Experts also predicted that everything depends on how the Trump’s new administration manages the development. Trump himself on multiple occasions claimed that he has been a victim of vindictive politics and persecuted many times as well.
On the other hand, many of the key people Trump nominated to be a part of his cabinet seem to be pro-India. Last year, Trump’s new national security adviser Mike Waltz was Modi’s guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations. In July, Trump’s pick for secretary of state Marco Rubio, introduced a bill to the US Senate to boost defence ties with India and treat the South Asian nation as a NATO ally like Japan.
