The question uppermost in the minds of investors is whether the markets will test 21,000 – the high reached in January 2008. Looking to the impressive rise during 2009, most analysts have started predicting a very positive outlook for 2010. Though nobody can fully predict what lies in store for 2010, yet before making any pronouncements one has to understand the ground realities facing the economy – both at home and abroad.
The 7.9 per cent growth in India’s GDP for the second quarter came as a welcome surprise coupled with signs of increasing private consumption and pick up in investment demand. All this has improved the business confidence index though we need to be more watchful on IIP numbers in days to come. But at 17,000-18,000 levels, the market appears to have discounted all the positives for FY2010.
Any uncertainties in growth of most of the advanced economies will ensure that the monetary policy remains loose there, which will ensure ample funds flowing to emerging markets
Though future progress on reforms such as PSU disinvestments can take the markets to newer highs, Dubai-like shocks from the global markets may be followed by sharp sell-offs and deep corrections during the year. However, any uncertainties in growth of most of the advanced economies will ensure that the monetary policy remains loose there, which will ensure ample funds flowing to emerging markets. Though our markets may have priced in all the positives, with a convincing long-term story, the prices may go yet higher in the short run – say, the first quarter of 2010, when the markets may enter a euphoric zone. The current PE ratio, which looks unreasonably high, may moderate a bit when growth catches up with the markets.
But the way our markets will perform depends a lot on continued inflows of foreign funds which in turn depend upon the conditions prevalent there. The belief that our markets will continue to do well solely on the strength of our economy has already been shattered. Therefore, what happens abroad is equally important for us. There are plenty of unresolved issues such as the commercial property market in the US, pick up in employment figures, end of the huge investment boom in China, potential bank failures due to the need for capital, and so on.
The recovery in the West has so far been pushed up by excessive liquidity and that too has not been sharp enough and is sub-par in affording comfort for a stable growth outlook in future. What will happen when the stimulus is withdrawn? The high leverage in US consumers’ balance sheets and over-capacity in global manufacturing are serious matters of concern.
The next year will witness the fading away of the effects of government spending and concessions since quite a lot of it is non-recurring. Further stimulus or concessions may be ruled out due to high fiscal deficit and debt burden already faced by policymakers. The focus is bound to shift to restoring stability in the financial system rather than promoting credit growth liberally as in the pre-crises period. The high rate of inflation will complicate the matter further due to the fact that the RBI has to do away with accommodative monetary policy. The businesses are still wary of taking up the expansionary path which may pose challenges in sustaining the growth momentum.
For 2010, the investors should be mentally prepared for sharp corrections whenever the markets make a new high. But such corrections can be used as good investment opportunities since the long-term story remains intact. However, interest rates and the rupee’s movement vis-a-vis the dollar need to be watched closely.
Happy New Year and happy investing in 2010!
Bhagwati Autocast
(CMP Rs 28)
The company produces SG iron castings and alloy iron castings and boasts of a very impressive client list. The current market price discounts the EPS of the trailing twelve months by a PE of just 4.4 as against the industry PE of 11.2 which gives the stock immense scope to appreciate. The fact that the company has paid a dividend of 8 per cent and has a book value of more than Rs 39 makes the stock an absolutely safe bet at this point of the market. With the auto sector making a turnaround and likely to do well in future, the stock is due for a rerating. Investors can earn decent returns with a time span of one to two years with a negligible downside risk.
The author is retired as Professor from the University of Delhi in 2024. He is an alumnus of IIM Indore and holds a PhD from the Delhi School of Economics. An investor activist and former member of various SEBI committees. He taught Capital Markets and Investment Banking at leading business schools of India.
