Trump’s reciprocal Tariffs : estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now … closer to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four.”

Leading economists have reacted sharply to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on 180 countries allegedly feeding off America’s economy for years and weakening its GDP growth. They warned the tariffs could destabilize global markets, disrupt trade and ultimately increase costs for U.S. businesses and consumers.
Economists have largely been critical following President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, warning the taxes could harm both the U.S. and global economies – potentially triggering a global recession and costing American families thousands.
An unofficial estimate projected that the average budget of a middle-class household could rise by a minimum of $2000 a year because the higher cost of imports could be passed onto the consumers thus triggering a consumer resistance to buy goods leading to the backlash of a recession affecting the manufacturing sector.
Trump said he would begin imposing a 10% minimum tariff on goods from all countries, though some trading partners will see much higher tariffs depending on the amounts that are levied on U.S. exports to those nations. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent urged other countries not to issue retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. following the announcement.
“Everybody sits back, take a deep breath, don’t immediately retaliate, let’s see where this goes. (“‘Monstrously Destructive’ and ‘Unwise’: Economists React to Trump’s …”) Because if you retaliate, that’s how you escalate,” he said in an interview with CNN.
Here’s what leading economists had to say about Trump’s moves:
Justin Wolfers, economics professor at University of Michigan and senior fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics, posted: “Monstrously destructive, incoherent, ill-informed tariffs based on fabrications, imagined wrongs, discredited theories and ignorance of decades of evidence. And the real tragedy is that they will hurt working Americans more than anyone else.”

Lawrence Summers, former secretary of treasury, former president of the National Economic Council and president emeritus at Harvard University, posted: “Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much. Markets continue to move after my previous tweet. The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now … closer to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four.”

Stephen Moore, former Trump advisor and fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, posted: “Don’t panic, investors! Despite recent market losses due to tariff fears and economic slowdown, history shows that Trumponomics drives growth. During President Trump’s first term, higher tariffs didn’t hinder a booming stock market thanks to pro-growth strategies!”

Trump’s Tariffs Met with Market Mayhem

The announcement of sweeping tariffs of at least 10% on U.S. imports rocked markets Thursday and had economists warning of dire times for the economy.

The Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank, released a statement, saying: “Tariffs can be a legitimate and useful tool in industrial policy for well-defined strategic goals, but broad-based tariffs that significantly raise the average effective tariff rate in the United States are unwise. Further, the second Trump administration’s rationale, parameters, and timeline for tariffs have been ever shifting. … Tariffs should not be a goal unto themselves, but a strategic tool to pair with other efforts to restore American competitiveness in narrowly targeted industrial sectors.”

Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, distinguished graduate professor at CUNY, wrote: “The tariffs Trump announced were higher than almost anyone expected. This is a much bigger shock to the economy than the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, especially when you bear in mind that international trade is about three times as important now as it was then. The size of the tariffs, however, wasn’t the only shocking thing about the Rose Garden announcement. Arguably what we learned about how the Trump team arrived at those tariff rates — the sheer malignant stupidity of the whole thing — was even worse.”

Jeffrey Sachs, professor at Columbia University, director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and president of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, wrote: “To close the trade deficit, the U.S. should close the budget deficit. Putting on tariffs will raise prices (such as for automobiles) but not close the trade or budget deficit, especially since Trump plans to offset tariff revenues with vastly larger tax cuts for his rich donors. Moreover, as Trump raises tariffs, the U.S. will face counter-tariffs that will directly impede U.S. exports. “The result will be lose-lose for the U.S. and the rest of the world.”” (“‘Monstrously Destructive’ and ‘Unwise’: Economists React … – MSN”)

The Centre for Economic Policy and Research, a left-leaning Washington policy group, wrote: “Trump somehow decided that trade was bankrupting the country, even though we were creating jobs rapidly, the economy was growing at a strong pace, and inflation was slowing to normal rates when he took office. Trump’s response is to give the country the most massive tax increase in its history, possibly exceeding $1 trillion on an annual basis, which comes to $7,000 per household. “”And this tax hike will primarily hit moderate and middle-income families.”” (“‘Monstrously Destructive’ and ‘Unwise’: Leading Economists React to …”) Trump’s taxes go easy on the rich, who spend a smaller share of their income on imported goods.”

Oren Cass, founder of the conservative populist think tank American Compass, said: “Absolutely there are going to be (effects) on equity prices. “There could be an effect for a year or two on some of those top line economic measures.” (“The Case for Trump’s Tariffs – What’s News – WSJ Podcasts”) There are going to be some effects on prices, but you’re also going to get the side of the scale that goes up. (“The Wall Street Journal Google Your News Update”) You’re going to get a lot more domestic investment. You’re going to get a lot more economic opportunity in parts of the country that have fallen behind. “You’re going to get a lot more resilience and security.” (“‘Monstrously Destructive’ and ‘Unwise’: Economists React … – MSN”) And so, nothing is free.”

Inflation-weary Americans may soon find they’re paying more for a host of products after President Trump announced two new types of tariffs on April 2, a day he termed “Liberation Day” because he believes the measures will erase trade imbalances between the U.S. and other nations.
Global Trends in U.S. Inflation Dynamics – Liberty Street
While Mr. Trump characterizes tariffs as paid by other nations, they are in fact paid by U.S. importers, such as Walmart or Amazon. Because the tariffs create higher costs for those businesses, they typically pass on all or some of the tariffs to consumers through price hikes.
The new tariffs introduced by Mr. Trump on Wednesday include a 10% universal tariff, as well as so-called reciprocal tariffs on more than 60 countries that are trade partners with the U.S. The tariffs will be additive, meaning that imports will face both the universal tariff of 10% plus the specific reciprocal import levies targeting each nation.
During his announcement, Mr. Trump said the tariffs would eventually lower prices for Americans, an issue on which voters say they want him to focus. But economists are predicting instead that consumers and businesses will likely encounter higher inflation, with price hikes on everything from food imports like coffee and chocolate to iPhones and other electronics manufactured outside the U.S.

“For all of President Trump’s talk of a new ‘golden age,’ this huge tax increase will inevitably result in higher prices for American families, lower growth and business investment, and diminished exports and manufacturing output as the country’s factories face retaliation abroad and costlier inputs (roughly half of all imports) at home,” said Scott Lincicome and Colin Grabow, trade experts at the Cato Institute, in an email. They added, “With today’s announcement, U.S. tariffs will approach levels not seen since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which incited a global trade war and deepened the Great Depression.”

The Trump administration said there are some exclusions to the tariffs, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals, although it added that these products might be subject to tariffs at a later time.

Which products will become more expensive with tariffs?

Because of the 10% universal tariff on imports, any imported goods are likely to become more expensive in the coming weeks and months as American companies digest the import duties and adjust their prices in response.
For instance, after Mr. Trump added tariffs to imported washing machines during his first term, the median price of an appliance jumped more than 11%, adding about $86 to the cost of a new unit, according to University of Chicago researchers.

Electronics like iPhones and TVs
Among the nations targeted by Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are China, Taiwan and South Korea, who are top exporters of electronics to the U.S., from Apple iPhones to television sets.

The Trump administration plans to hit China with a reciprocal tariff of 34%, which means that products manufactured there and imported into the U.S. could see higher prices soon after the levies go into effect on April 9.

Almost all iPhones are still manufactured in China, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, although Apple has shifted some of its iPhone fabrication to India. However, the Trump administration will also be adding a 26% reciprocal tariff to Indian imports, it said on Wednesday.
“Apple produces basically all their iPhones in China and the question will be around exceptions/exemptions on this tariff policy if those companies are building more operations/factories/plants in the U.S.,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in an April 2 research note.

Automobiles
In addition to Mr. Trump’s previously announced 25% tariff on auto imports, which go into effect today, imported autos will also face the 10% universal tariffs. Some U.S.-made vehicles include parts imported from other countries, which will face new tariffs and increase the purchase price of those cars, experts said.
Ultimately, American consumers could end up paying an additional $2,500 to $5,000 for the lowest-cost American cars, and up to $20,000 for some imported models, according to an April 2 estimate from Anderson Economic Group.

Clothing and shoes

“The bulk of apparel and shoes sold in U.S. stores like Walmart and Target is manufactured outside the U.S., with China, Vietnam and Bangladesh among the biggest exporters.” (“Which products will be affected by new tariffs announced by Trump …”)
All three nations will face reciprocal tariffs from the Trump administration, at 34% for China, 46% for Vietnam and 37% for Bangladesh.

Wine and spirits

Italian and French wines and Scottish whisky are also likely to rise in price, as European Union imports will face a reciprocal tariff of 20% while United Kingdom-made products will face a 10% import duty.
“Tariffs on imported wines will create a ripple effect across the industry — impacting importers, distributors and consumers alike,” Louis Amoroso, CEO of Full Glass Wine Co., told CBS MoneyWatch.
Amoroso, whose company owns direct-to-consumer wine retailers, added, “While it’s better than 200%, a 20% tariff still compounds through the supply chain and could lead to a 40% or more cost increase for consumers.”

Furniture

About 30% to 40% of furniture sold in the U.S. is manufactured in other countries, according to CNBC. Top exporters of furniture to the U.S. include China and Vietnam.
Coffee and chocolate
The U.S. imports about 80% of its coffee beans from Latin American countries such as Brazil and Colombia, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Both nations are included in Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, with each facing rates of 10%.
Chocolate is another major Latin American import, given that the U.S. climate is by and large unsuited to growing cocoa beans. Among the nations that export cocoa beans to the country are Cote d’Ivoire and Ecuador, according to the USDA. Those nations will face reciprocal tariffs of 21% and 10%, respectively.
Swiss watches
Swiss imports to the U.S. will face a new reciprocal tariff of 31%, which will impact watches from affordable brands such as Swatch to pricey timepieces manufactured by the likes of Rolex.