Bhagwant Mann’s personal inadequacies —persistent lies, inaccessibility, liquor, lack of team, inadequate grasp of policy, OSDs highhandedness, Rumours about Family —will then hit him hard. The warning signs are already being noticed. Vidhan Sabha speaker Kultar Singh Sandhwan and some disgruntled AAP MLAs, reportedly pushed with Delhi-based leaders to air their moans against Mann in the immediate aftermath of the Lok Sabha polls. Will Kejriwal dare to remove Bhagwant Mann as Chief Minister of Punjab. 
Ever since Arvind Kejriwal has come back on bail, rumour mills have been on an overdrive in Punjab over the political fate of CM Bhagwant Mann. Adding fuel to the fire has been the CMs “ill health” and hospitalisation which further added to speculation of his imminent replacement.
The tug of war between Punjab and Delhi or more specifically Bhagwant and Kejriwal has been a persistent feature of Aam Aadmi party’s short history. Mann played a willing side kick to Kejriwal as he ruthlessly purged Parshant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav, Kumar Vishwas and others to become the AAP supremo. At the same time Bhagwant was equally unsparing of his party opponents in Punjab —Phoolka, Chottepur and Khaira in his bid to become the numero-uno in Punjab. Both equally ruthless, narcissistic, image conscious and masters of symbolism and rhetoric used new communication technologies, populism and primeval energy of volunteers to exploit popular discontent and decimated traditional parties in Delhi (2015) and Punjab (2022).
During this phase of ascendency in Punjab (2014-22), Bhagwant and AAP in Punjab clearly played second fiddle to Kejriwal and Delhi. Punjab resources of AAP -men and material were used in Delhi and other areas around the country and Delhi based Satraps like Sanjay Singh, Durgesh Pathak, Raghav Chadha and Sandeep Pathak lorded over Punjab maintaining an iron grip over the Punjab organisation. Bhagwant was never the first choice of Delhi for CM, but it had to relent eventually due to Bhagwant’s mass support. However, control over the organisation and MLAs remained with Delhi.
Once AAP came to power in Punjab, the expectations of Delhi were the same —-Bhagwant to remain a titular head while real power remained with Delhi. And for almost a year this remained true. Delhi decided Rajya Sabha nominees for Punjab, “RC Sir” (Raghav Chadha) gave orders to Punjab bureaucrats, Policies on Liquor, Aam Aadmi Party clinics and Schools of eminence were devised in Delhi and implemented in Punjab. Punjab ministers were just “rubber stamps” as Delhi wallahs run amok in Punjab secretariat. Punjab money was splurged on advertisements outside Punjab and aeroplane rides. Punjab Ministers, MLAs and workers toiled in Gujarat and Himachal. One year after his ascendency, Bhagwant despite his individual popularity remained captive, shackled and circumcised.
However, the tide began to turn in the summer of 2023. As Bhagwant gained experience, his confidence and assertiveness increased. The win against odds in the Jalandhar By-election after a setback in Sangrur the previous year reaffirmed Bhagwant’s position as the most popular AAP leader. He also began to strategically use Vigilance to keep the opposition on the backfoot and the bureaucracy fearful. Using a subtle “tilt towards BJP” and the “fear of Operation Lotus”, he deftly chucked out “RC Sir” from Punjab. At the same time problems of Arvind Kejriwal and Delhi increased due to “Liquor Scam” and incarceration of top Delhi leaders including Kejriwal. Bhagwant used the opportunity to strengthen himself and fill the power vacuum. Instead of “RC Sir”, Bhagwant’s OSDs and family began to wield power. Most rural MLAs aligned with the “vote catcher” and the one wielding the power over police. Portfolios of Delhi loyalists began to be reshuffled, and Bhagwant got a free reign during the ticket allotment for Lok Sabha elections.
However, the lacklustre performance of AAP during the Lok Sabha elections where it was able to win just 3 out of 13 seats and saw its vote share decline from 42% to 26% put Bhagwant under renewed pressure. Encouraged by the sidelined Delhi, dissidents flocked to Delhi under speaker Kultar Sandhwan. After a brief ceasefire, swords were crossed once again during the recent Vidhan Sabha session when Sandhwan in an unprecedented move sought the support of the Vidhan Sabha to summon the DGP to report on a corruption complaint against a junior police officer. Also, a number of ruling party MLAs hauled their own government over the coals for its non-performance and alleged corruption. The release of Kejriwal on bail has further exacerbated.
Bhagwant’s problems
Bhagwant was not allowed to speak during an event at Delhi to welcome Kejriwal. A miffed Mann in retaliation was conspicuous in his absence during the oath taking ceremony of Atishi Marlene as Delhi CM Kejriwal convened a meeting of all Punjab Ministers in Delhi which was a direct challenge to Bhagwant’s authority. Bhagwant responded immediately by dropping 4 ministers, many of them under duress.
The recent “Rumour” about Bhagwant being replaced during his hospitalisation can be interpreted either as a “trial run” or a “failed coup”. The balance of power till now remains with Bhagwant and the probability of him being replaced in the near future remains low. This is because Delhi and Kejriwal themselves have become very weak. Their credibility is low in Punjab and winning Delhi remains a matter of life and death for them. Any attempt by them to destabilise their own government in Punjab will be suicidal and foolhardy.
Bhagwant despite all his problems—liquor, inexperience, vendetta— still remains the tallest leader in Punjab by distance and AAP’s star campaigner nationally. In Punjab AAP is Bhagwant and Bhagwant AAP. Knowing his ruthlessness and “will to fight” it is also unimaginable that he will go down without a fight. He still has the support of a substantial section of the MLAs and there is no “face” comparable to him in AAP. Kultar Sandhwan, Harjot Bains, Harpal Cheema, Baljinder Kaur—names touted to replace Bhagwant are pigmies with the added burden of being perceived as “Delhi’s stooges”. There is the lurking presence of BJP in the background which can muddle the waters in case there is instability.
It would be instructive here to compare Bhagwant Mann with Captain Amarinder Singh during his last tenure. When Captain was replaced at the fag end of the Congress reign in 2021, his credibility had nosedived, and the majority of MLAs had left him. There were credible faces —Sidhu, Jakhar, Channi —to replace him and he had lost the will to fight. Bhagwant is still far off from that stage.
However, this does not mean that Bhagwant Mann is all clear. He has probably reached his apogee in politics and the gradual slide in his popularity has already begun. As Punjab continues to reel under lawlessness, drugs, corruption and debt, Bhagwant model of Populism, Gimmicks, Advertisement and Vendetta will not persist. His personal inadequacies —persistent lies, inaccessibility, liquor, lack of team, inadequate grasp of policy, OSDs highhandedness, Rumours about Family —will then hit him hard. The warning signs are already being noticed. None of his party MLAs or Ministers dared to visit him in Fortis or even wish him good health on their social media, until the Congress MLA, Pargat Singh shamed them to do so. If things continue to persist like this and Kejriwal emerges stronger after Delhi elections in early 2025, he is sure to launch another attempt to dislodge Bhagwant. Bhagwant might have reached the captain stage by then.
( Harjeshwar Pal Singh is a senior writer, who writes on Politics and History)
All Pic are Courtesy from FaceBook Pages of the respective leaders. One pic courtesy from Rediff.com