One Nation one poll reportedly is a design of BJP to concentrate on North India and Increase the seats in their bastion, so the opposition from south Indian states is minimised. Will it happen no one knows as it’s a very perilous process.
Is the one nation one poll appearing to be an exercise by Narendra Modi who will turn 75 years old to create panic among opposition leader to have mid-term poll, but it seems a remote possibility.
Is the one Nation one poll being a pre-emptive attempt to stop RSS by Narendra Modi, not to disrupt his apple cart now.
The moot point is how One Nation One Poll can be conducted without having the census of India.
Narendra Modi is aware about the complications of the ONOP, but in the midst of Haryana Assembly Elections 2024, he has just thrown his hat in the sky.
By Jayanta Bhattacharya a veteran journalist has analysed in detail about the One Nation One Poll.
When “Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam” or Women’s Reservation Bill was passed in Parliament last year, it was rightly hailed as a historic move for which the country had been waiting for a long time. However, the Act, as published in Gazette of India on 28 September 2023, states that “reservation of seats for women in the House of the People, the Legislative Assembly of a State and the Legislative Assembly of the National Capital Territory of Delhi shall come into effect after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken for this purpose after the relevant figures for the first census taken after commencement of the Constitution (One Hundred and Sixth Amendment) Act, 2023 have been published and shall cease to have effect on the expiration of a period of fifteen years from such commencement”.
* Among salient features of the new Parliament of India is that the Lok Sabha is larger with a capacity of up to 888 seats and so is Rajya Sabha with up to 384 seats. In fact, the Lok Sabha may accommodate up to 1,272 seats for joint sessions of Parliament.
Reports suggest that the country’s population has increased by about 30 per cent since the census of India was conducted in 2011. As supposed to be held every ten years, it was due in 2021 but was then delayed due to the Covid pandemic and its aftermath. It is not clear yet as to when it will be finally carried out. Once the census is conducted, population-based delimitation – which will play a significant role in determining reservation of seats and the reorganisation of constituencies and its number – is likely to follow.
According to the Election Commission of India (ECI) website, “Delimitation literally means the act or process of fixing limits or boundaries of territorial constituencies in a country or a province having a legislative body”. It explains that the job of delimitation is assigned to a high-power body, known as Delimitation Commission or a Boundary Commission.
Delimitation Commissions have been constituted four times – in 1952 under the Delimitation Commission Act, 1952; again in 1963 under Delimitation Commission Act, 1962; then in 1973 under Delimitation Act, 1972; and in 2002, under Delimitation Act, 2002. The orders of the Delimitation Commission “have the force of law and cannot be in question before any court. These orders come into force on a date to be specified by the President of India on this behalf. The copies of its orders are laid before the House of the People and the State Legislative Assembly concerned, but no modifications are permissible therein by them,” the ECI site adds.
Delimitation Process
The delimitation process of 1952 was the first such exercise after independence, based on the 1951 census, where the number of seats in Lok Sabha was fixed at 494. The second such exercise of 1963 followed the reorganisation of states in 1956. It was based on the 1961 census, where the seats in the Lower House were increased to 522. The delimitation process in 1973 – after census conducted in 1971, added more seats, taking the total to 543.
In 1976, the Indira Gandhi-led union government suspended delimitation until after the 2001 census. It was done keeping in view family planning programmes being implemented in states; so that these did not affect their political representation in the Lok Sabha. However, this led to considerable discrepancies in the size of constituencies.
The delimitation exercise of 2002 following the 2001 census saw no changes in the number of Lok Sabha seats (543) or their apportionment between the various states. Subsequently, the Constitution of India was specifically amended in 2002 so as not to have interstate delimitation of constituencies till the “first census conducted after the year 2026”. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government under Atal Behari Vajpayee was at the Centre at that time.
Point number two in the Statement of Objects and Reasons appended to the Constitution (Ninety-first Amendment) Bill, 2000 which was enacted as the Constitution (Eighty-fourth Amendment) Act, 2002 added, “There have been consistent demands, both for and against undertaking the exercise of fresh delimitation. Keeping in view the progress of family planning programmes in different parts of the country, the Government, as part of the National Population Policy strategy, recently decided to extend the current freeze on undertaking fresh delimitation up to the year 2026 as a motivational measure to enable the State Government to pursue the agenda for population stabilisation”.
Thus, there has been no change in the number of seats in the Lok Sabha. Though delimitation was carried out in Jammu and Kashmir (2020) after its reorganisation in 2019 and later, in Assam (2023), these were done on the basis of the last census.
The North-South Debate
However, delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies based on population has been an issue strongly opposed by political parties from South India. MPs representing such parties have argued that this exercise will provide other states in the country an undue political edge. Leaders of the DMK, the party now ruling Tamil Nadu, have been arguing that states like theirs and Kerala will be losing out in representation in Parliament, which is like being penalised for implementing family planning. On the other hand, states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar have allegedly witnessed a population explosion, and will have a larger number of MPs.
A research paper (https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2019/03/indias-emerging-crisis-of-representation?lang=en), published in 2019 by policy analysts Milan Vaishnav and Jaimie Hintson for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, titled ‘India’s Emerging Crisis of Representation’, said: “If federalism is the glue that has kept the world’s largest democracy together, there are growing signs that this adhesive is becoming unstuck”.
According to this study, “Four north Indian states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh) would collectively gain 22 seats, while four southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu) would lose 17 seats. Based on our population projections, these trends will only intensify as time goes on. In 2026, for instance, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh alone stand to gain 21 seats while Kerala and Tamil Nadu would forfeit as many as 16.”
The authors argued that parties “with bases concentrated in fast-growing northern states—like the current ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—would gain power at the expense of southern regional heavyweights”.
Considering all the aspects, the issue currently hangs fire, and it is to be seen what the outcome is in, or after, 2026.
(ENDS)